走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第75部分
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庖宓牟ǘ不岚阉ǖ簟Ｈ绻顾鸱诺奶读耍；び植还弧�
The Parabolic System； described in Trading for a Living； tried to tackle this problem by moving stops closer to the market each day； accelerating whenever a stock or a modity reached a new extreme。 The trouble with Parabolic was that it kept moving even if the market stayed flat and often got hit by meaningless noise。
我在《以交易为生》中谈过抛物线系统，想通过每天移动止损的方式解决这个问题，当股票或商品期货到达极限价格时更好用。抛物线的问题是，即使市场是横盘，或者是无意义的波动，系统也总是在动，容易被扫止损。
The concept of signal and noise states that the trend is the signal and the nontrending motion is the noise。 A stock or a future may be in an uptrend or a downtrend； but the noise of its random chop can obscure its signal。 Trading at the right edge is hard because the noise level is high。 I developed SafeZone to trail prices with stops tight enough to protect capital but remote enough to keep clear of most random fluctuations。
信号的意思是说趋势就是信号，噪音的意思是说没有方向的波动叫噪音。股票或期货也许上涨或下跌，但是随机的噪音会让趋势变得模糊。正确交易很难，因为噪音太大。我发明的安全区域能跟踪价格，用止损保护资金，还能远离大部分随机波动。
Engineers design filters to suppress noise and allow the signal to e through。 If the trend is the signal； then the countertrend motion is the noise。 When the trend is up； we can define noise as that part of each day’s range that protrudes below the previous day’s low。 When the trend is down； we can define noise as that part of each day’s range that protrudes above the previous day’s high。 SafeZone measures market noise and places stops at a multiple of noise level away from the market。
工程师发明了滤网在过滤噪音，让信号通过。如果趋势就是信号，那么逆势的波动就是噪音。当趋势上涨时，每天波动超过前一天最低点就是噪音。当趋势下跌， 每天波动超过前一天最高点就是噪音。安全区域计算噪音，让止损点远离噪音。
We may use the slope of a 22…day EMA to define the trend。 You need to choose the length of the lookback period for measuring noise level。 It has to be long enough to track recent behavior but short enough to be relevant for current trading。 A period of 10 to 20 days works well； or we can make our lookback period 100 days or so if we want to average long…term market behavior。
你也许使用22日均线的坡度来确定趋势。你需要选择时间参数来计算噪音。既要足够长，以计算最近的行为；又要足够短，以和近期的交易同步。10——20天都可以，或者用100天，那么我们就是想计算长期的市场行为。
If the trend is up； mark all downside penetrations during the look…back period； add their depths； and divide the sum by the number of penetrations。 This gives you the Average Downside Penetration for the selected lookback period。 It reflects the average level of noise in the current uptrend。 Placing your stop any closer would be self…defeating。 We want to place our stops farther away from the market than the average level of noise。 Multiply the Average Downside Penetration by a coefficient； starting with two； but experiment with higher numbers。 Subtract the result from yesterday’s low； and place your stop there。 If today’s low is lower than yesterday’s； do not move your stop lower since we are only allowed to raise stops on long positions； not lower them。
如果趋势上涨，记下那些下跌时穿过均线的，加上深度，然后再除以穿过的天数。这样，在选择的天数内，就得到了平均下跌穿过。它反映了平均的噪音水平。如果止损太近，就害了自己。我们要把止损放在比平均噪音远的地方。给平均下跌穿透乘以一个系数，从2开始，但你可以测试更大的数字。结果再减去昨天的最低点，你的止损单就下在这里。如果今天的最低点比昨天低，不要移动止损，因为做多时只会向上移动止损，不会向下移动止损。
Reverse these rules in downtrends。 When a 22…day EMA identifies a downtrend； count all the upside penetrations during the lookback period and find the Average Upside Penetration。 Multiply it by a coefficient； starting with two。 When you go short； place a stop twice the Average Upside Penetration above the previous day’s high。 Lower your stop whenever the market makes a lower high； but never raise it。
趋势下跌时则反之。当22日均线确认了下跌，在22天内，记下向上穿过，算出平均上涨穿过。乘以系数，从2开始。当你做空时，在昨天最高点的基础上用2倍的平均上涨穿过止损。当市场创次高时，向下移动止损，不要向上移动。
I anticipate that SafeZone will be programmed into many software packages； allowing traders to control both the lookback period and the multiplication factor。 Until then； you will have to do your own programming or else track SafeZone manually （see Table 6。1）。 Be sure to calculate it separately for uptrends and downtrends。
我希望安全区域能被编进很多软件里面，让交易者控制好很多因素。目前，你要自己编程序，或者手工跟踪安全区域（看表6。1）。要分别为上涨和下跌计算。
Here are the rules for calculating SafeZone using an Excel spreadsheet。 Once you understand how it works； try to program SafeZone into your technical analysis software and superimpose its signals on the chart。 pare the numbers from the spreadsheet and the trading software。 They should be identical； otherwise； you have a programming error。 paring results from two software packages helps overe pesky programming problems。
这是是用电子表格计算安全区域的方法。一旦你明白了原理，尽量把它编进你的技术分析软件，在图表上加上信号。对比电子表格的数据和软件的数据。他们应该一致，否则，你的编程有错误。对比2个软件能帮助找到令人头痛的编程问题。
Rules for Longs in Uptrends When the trend is up； we calculate SafeZone on the basis of the lows because their pattern determines stop placement。
上涨时做多的原则 当趋势上涨，我们根据最低点计算安全区域，因为它们的模式决定了止损的位置。
Table 6。1 SafeZone Stops – Spreadsheet
表6。1 安全区域止损——电子表格
1。 Obtain at least a month of data for your stock or future in high…low…close format； as shown in Table 6。1 （lows are in column C with the first record in row 3）。
2。 Test whether today’s low is lower than yesterday’s。 Go to cell E4； enter the formula =IF（C3》C4；C3…C4；0） and copy it down the length of that column。 It measures the depth of the downside penetration below the previous day’s range； and if there is none； it shows zero。
3。 Choose the lookback period and summarize all downside penetrations during that time。 Begin with 10 days and later experiment with other values。 Go to cell F13； enter the formula =SUM（E4：E13）； and copy it down the length of that column。 It will summarize the extent of all downside penetrations for the past 10 days。
4。 Mark each bar that penetrates below the previous bar。 Go to cell G4； enter the formula =IF（C4
