走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第84部分
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不同的因素之间也许会互相抵消一部分。比如，如果市场下跌厉害，降低了看涨期权的价值，波动行的增加提升了期权的价值，那么也许看涨期权的价值比预期跌的少。有几个数学模型，比如很多期权书都谈到的“黑色休闲”，就决定了什么是公平的价值。
The simplest option strategy is to buy them。 That’s what beginners do； especially buying calls when they cannot afford to buy stocks。 They miss the fact that options are more plex than stocks and someone who can’t make money in stocks is doomed in options。 A more sophisticated strategy involves writing； or selling； options。 A writer may be either covered or naked。
最简单的期权策略就是买入。新手就这么做，如果买不起股票，他们就买看涨期权。
Covered writers own the underlying securities。 For example； a fund may hold IBM stock and sell calls against them； figuring that if the stock does not reach its exercise price and the options expire worthless； they’ll pocket the extra ine。 If IBM rises to the exercise price and their option is called； they’ll sell their stock at a profit； use the money to buy another； and sell calls against it。 Covered writing was very profitable in the early years of exchange…traded options。 By now the field is very crowded； and the returns have shrunk。 Naked writing； to be reviewed later involves selling options without owning the underlying securities； with writers backing up what they sell only with cash in their accounts。
发行持有标的期权的人拥有标的证券。比如，一个基金持有IBM股票，并卖出关于这个股票的看涨期权，希望股票的价格不到到达行权价，这样期权就作废了，他们就有了额外收入。如果IBM涨到了行权价，他们就卖出股票获得利润，用这个钱买其它的股票，再卖其它股票的看涨期权。在早年的交易所交易中，这种发行持有标的期权的办法很赚钱。现在做这个的人太多了，回报没那么多了。发行不持有标的期权，我们后面会谈，这个方法是在不持有标的证券的前提下卖期权，发行人仅仅用账户的钱做保证。
The above was a brief summary of option terms。 To learn more； please turn to the literature on options； listed at the end of this chapter。 Just watch out for the books that promise a “simple strategy for tripling your money in a year； working 15 minutes a day； with no math。” People who make money in options tend to be mathematically savvy and highly capitalized； the exact opposite of an average wide…eyed gambler who hopes to make a quick buck from his 5；000 stake。 Let us now review options strategies for buying and writing。
以上是对期权的短暂总结。如果想多学点，请去看关于期权的书，本章结尾会列出来。但是要警惕这样的承诺“简单的策略能保证1年3倍，1年工作15分钟，不必数学好。”在期权市场赚钱的人一般数学很好，资金充足。只有天真的赌徒才希望用5000元赚快钱。我们来总结买期权和发行期权的策略。
Buying Options … The Major Reversal Tactic It is harder to make money buying options than stocks。 You face all the usual problems； such as choosing the right stock； identifying its trend； and selecting entry and exit points。 In addition； you must worry how fast your stock will get where you expect it to go。 If you buy a rising stock and it takes five months instead of three to reach its target； you still have a winning trade。 Do the same with options； and they’ll expire worthless。 If you decide to buy more time by getting longer…term options； you’ll lose money in a different way； because those options are more expensive and move more slowly。 All options keep losing time value。 Poor beginners who buy them as a substitute for stocks rush in where the pros fear to tread！
买期权——重要的反转战术 买期权赚钱比买股票赚钱难。你要面对不寻常的问题，必须选择正确的股票，确认它的趋势，选择进场点，出场点。另外，你还要研究股票以多快的速度才能到达你的目标。如果你买了一只上涨的股票，它用了5个月，不是3个月涨到了你的目标，你是赚钱的。同样的方法用在期权上，它们却到期作废了。如果你想买到期日很长的期权，你可能在多种情况下亏钱，因为这样的期权很贵，动作很慢。所有的期权都在损失时间价值。可怜的新手为了替换股票跳进了专业人士都怕的市场。
Professionals tend to buy options only on special occasions； when they expect a major reversal； especially to the downside。 If you expect not a little downtrend in a stock but a massive crash； buying a put may be a good idea。 When a long…term trend begins to turn； especially near the top； it creates massive turbulence； like an ocean liner changing its course。 A stock may collapse today and soar tomorrow； only to collapse again。 When volatility goes through the roof； even well…heeled traders have trouble placing stops。 A stop belongs outside the zone of market noise； but where do you put it when the noise level rises to a roar？ Options allow you to sidestep this problem； at a price which can only be covered by a major move。
专业人士仅在特殊情况下买期权，当他们期待主要反转的时候，尤其是下跌的时候买入。如果你不是期待股票的小跌，而是崩跌，那么买看跌期权是好主意。当长期趋势开始下跌时，尤其是顶部附近的下跌，它会产生很大的振荡，就像是海岸线改变了路线。股票也许会今天崩跌，明天飙涨，然后又崩跌。当波动穿破屋顶时，即使是有能力的交易者也不知道如何设置止损了。止损是市场噪音外的东西，但是在噪音冲天的市场该怎么办呢？期权能让你避免这个问题，在主趋势只能回补的价格下手。
Prices tend to fall twice as fast as they rise。 Greed； the dominant emotion of uptrends； is a happy and lasting feeling。 Fear； the dominant emotion of downtrends； is sharper and more violent。 Professionals are more likely to buy puts because of shorter exposure to time decay。 When you expect a major downside reversal； buying a put can be a sensible trade。 The same principles apply to calls； but uptrends are better traded with stocks。
价格在下跌时的跌幅一般是上涨时的2倍。上涨时的主要情绪是贪婪。下跌时的主要情绪是恐惧，更厉害，更剧烈。专业人士喜欢买看跌期权，因为时间损耗短。当你期待主趋势反转时，买看跌期权是合理的。看涨期权也是同样的原理，但上涨的趋势还是买股票好。
A trader who expects a downswing must decide which put to buy。 The best choice is counterintuitive and different from what most people get。
期待下跌的交易者要决定买什么样的看跌期权。最好是和直觉不同的，和别人不一样的。
Estimate how low you expect a stock to collapse。 A put is worth buying only if you expect a waterfall decline。
要估计股票会跌到哪里。只有在崩跌时看跌期权才值得买。
Avoid puts with more than two months of life。 Buying puts makes sense only when you expect a sharp decline。 If you anticipate a drawn…out downtrend； it is better to sell short the underlying security。
要避免买存续期超过2个月的看跌期权。只有在期待崩跌时买入看跌期权才有意义。如果你希望会长期下跌，那么最好是做空标的证券。
Look for cheap puts whose price reflects no hope。 Move your finger down the column of put strikes。 The lower you go； the cheaper the puts。 At first； each time you drop to the next strike price； a put is 25％ or even 35％ cheaper than the previous level。 Eventually you e to the strike level at which you would only save a tiny fraction of price。 This shows that all hope has been squeezed out of that put； and it is priced like a cheap lottery ticket。 That is the one you want！
寻找便宜的看跌期权，它们的价格反映了没有希望。顺着看跌期权向下找。越往下越便宜。首先，行权价越低一个层次，就意味着看跌期权比上一层次要便宜25％——35％。最后一个层次价格最便宜。这表明所有的希望都被挤没了，这个价格和买彩票差不多。你就要这样的！
Buying a very cheap； far…out…of…the…money put is counterintuitive。 It is so far…out…of…the…money and has so little life left in it that it seems likely to expire worthless。 You can’t place a stop on it； so if you’re wrong； the entire premium will go up in smoke。 Why not buy a put closer to the money？
买一个便宜的，不值钱的看跌期权是违反只觉的。不值钱的，没有多少生命的看起来要到期作废了。你不能止损，如果你错了，所有的钱就化成烟了。为什么不买值钱的看跌期权？
The only time to buy a put is when you’re shooting for an exceptional gain from a major reversal。 In an ordinary downtrend it’s better to short stocks。 Cheap far…out…of…the…money puts provide the most bang for the buck。 Aim for a 10…fold gain or better； rather than the usual 2：1 or 3：1 ratio。 Returns like these allow you to be wrong on a string of trades； yet e out ahead in the end。 Catching one major reversal will make up for a string of losses and leave you very profitable。
买看跌期权的唯一机会是当你寻找从主要的反转赚钱时买入。在普通的下跌中，最好做空股票。不值钱的看跌期权能赚大钱。目标是10倍，或更多，不是通常的2倍或3倍。想取得这样的回报，你可以连续多次犯�
